The Global Crisis Watch episodes over June marked an inflection point in the evolving global order. Geopolitical instability, systemic humanitarian crises, shifting alliances and the erosion of postwar institutional frameworks now define an increasingly volatile international landscape.
The discussions reflected both the scale of current disruptions and the underlying fragility of global governance. Key flashpoints – ranging from Israel–Iran military escalation and Ukraine–Russia cross-border operations to rising populism in Europe and unrest within Western democracies – served to illustrate the shifting centre of geopolitical gravity. Taken together, the sessions offered deep insight into a world navigating overlapping crises, strategic ambiguity and structural realignments.
Key themes included:
· Middle East Escalation and Strategic Ambiguity: Israel’s direct strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and Iran’s symbolic drone retaliation mark a new stage in regional military brinkmanship. The US role remains complex and ambiguous, adding to global uncertainty.
· Ukraine Conflict Expansion: Ukrainian special forces targeted deep into Russian territory, resulting in the destruction of key strategic assets and a renewed wave of Russian retaliatory strikes.
· Institutional Erosion and Polarisation in the United States: Domestic militarisation in the US, disinformation and elite fragmentation (e.g. Trump–Musk fallout) reflect rising internal stress within democratic systems.
· Democratic Backsliding in Europe: Elections in Poland and political shifts in the Netherlands, France and Italy illustrate the growing resonance of nationalist and autocratic governance models.
· Geopolitical Realignments: The Indo- Pacific remains a focal point with China asserting non-confrontational dominance through soft-power and infrastructure control. Simultaneously, Global South perceptions of Western double standards are hardening.
· Operational Fragility: Logistics disruptions at Ukraine’s borders, misuse of commercial aviation routes and lapses in organisational duty of care underscore the increasing difficulty of maintaining humanitarian and business continuity under conflict conditions.
· Climate Risk, Migration Pressures and Systemic Fragility: Climate risks – rising sea levels in Fiji, for instance – and infrastructure gaps in countries like the UK and India amplify governance stress and complicate strategic planning. Symbolic acts like Greta Thunberg’s detention and rising civil unrest in North America spotlight the fraying consensus around international law, norms and civic trust.