The December Global Risk Review Report delivers concise, strategic analysis of key geopolitical, economic and humanitarian developments shaping global stability. This edition highlights a world defined by enduring geopolitical volatility, systemic fragility and accelerating power shifts.
Key themes include Sudan’s worsening conflict and mass displacement, the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war with debates over frozen assets and energy security and shifting U.S. politics marked by Zohran Mamdani’s election as New York City’s first Muslim mayor alongside polarising federal policies.
Moreover, climate diplomacy at COP30 reflects a pivot from mitigation to adaptation, while Europe’s energy fragility and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund debates underscore structural vulnerabilities. Additional concerns span Gaza’s complex reconstruction, rising social unrest in the UK, youth radicalisation via social media and regional pressures in Nepal, Serbia and Southeast Asia. The report emphasises the urgent need for coordinated international engagement and resilience strategies to deal with these global developments.
MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL AND POLITICAL SHIFTS
- Zohran Mamdani elected NYC Mayor: First Muslim mayor, youngest since 1892.
- Trump’s unilateral statements on Nigeria (protecting Christian communities) sparked sovereignty disputes.
- Proposed Ukraine ‘peace plan’ viewed as concessions to Russia, excluding Ukraine from negotiations.
- U.S.–Saudi ties deepened, reshaping dynamics in a relation to Israel and Gaza.
HUMANITARIAN CRISES AND CONFLICTS
Sudan:
- Intensifying conflict between Sudanese Armed Forces and RSF.
- Regional involvement: Egypt and UAE backing opposing sides.
- Widely described as the world’s most severe humanitarian crisis.
Ukraine War:
- Ongoing Russian strikes on infrastructure.
- EU debates using frozen Russian assets (~$140 billion) for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
- European partners alarmed by Trump’s unilateral peace proposal favouring Russia.
Gaza Reconstruction:
- Estimated £53 billion cost, 300,000 homes destroyed.
- Proposals range from U.S.- led trusteeship to local ‘Phoenix Plan’.
- Reconstruction hindered by rubble, unexploded ordnance and fractured governance.
CLIMATE, ENERGY AND SECURITY
- Energy Security in Europe:
- Fragile reliance on Norwegian pipelines and indirect Russian supplies.
- UK vulnerable with only ~12 days of gas storage.
- Calls for unity and resilience amid winter energy fears.
COP30 and Climate Adaptation:
- Shift from prevention and mitigation to adaptation strategies.
- COP30 seen as weakened, with COP31 relocated to Turkey after Australia withdrew.
- Climate diplomacy increasingly fragmented.
Technology and Security Risks:
- Chinese-manufactured buses and inverters with surveillance capabilities raise supply chain concerns.
- Espionage and insider threats highlighted as growing risks.
- UK COVID inquiry revealed preparedness failures and accountability gaps.
GOVERNANCE, SOCIAL COHESION AND PUBLIC ORDER
United States:
- Economic strain from inflation and government shutdown.
- Federal enforcement and immigration practices under scrutiny.
- Mid-term elections expected to test Trump’s influence.
United Kingdom:
- Rising public unrest linked to football gatherings and extremist exploitation of protests.
- Reform Party gaining traction amid disillusionment with mainstream parties.
- COVID inquiry criticised for excessive interventions and lack of actionable reforms.
Youth, Social Media and Radicalisation:
- Social media linked to risky behaviours, recruitment by extremist groups and mental health crises.
- Up to 20% of students avoiding school due to safety concerns.
- Gaming apps implicated in reinforcing extremist ideologies.
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Nepal:
- Facing climatic hazards (avalanches, floods disrupting tourism) and political instability ahead of elections.
- Education and workforce gaps driving youth migration abroad.
- Consolidation of communist parties reshaping political landscape.
Serbia:
- Energy pressures due to Russian ownership of NIS oil company.
- EU warning against dual alignment with Russia and EU.
- Controversy over Jared Kushner’s hotel project on historic Belgrade site.
Indonesia & Southeast Asia:
- Indonesia pursuing non-aligned diplomacy with U.S., China and Russia.
- Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia emerging as economic hubs.
- Rising security concerns in the Philippines.