Global Crisis Watch 390 & 391

Floods Deepen Gaza’s Humanitarian Crisis as Trump-Backed Resolution Advances

The UN Security Council has approved a US-drafted resolution endorsing President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza , including the creation of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) and a transitional governance body, the Board of Peace (BoP). The ISF is intended to work with Israel, Egypt and a newly trained Palestinian police force to secure border areas and disarm non-state armed groups, including Hamas. The BoP will supervise a Palestinian technocratic committee, oversee reconstruction and coordinate humanitarian aid, financed through a World Bank-backed trust fund.

The resolution passed with 13 votes in favor, including the UK and France; Russia and China abstained. Hamas rejected the plan, describing it as imposing an international “guardianship mechanism” and compromising neutrality. While the resolution references a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination, Israel opposes a Palestinian state, creating a significant obstacle to long-term peace. The plan followed a fragile ceasefire that began on 10 October, after Hamas-led attacks killed around 1,200 in Israel and resulted in 251 hostages. Israeli military action has since killed over 69,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities.

Humanitarian conditions in Gaza remain critical. Aid agencies say winter rains have made conditions even more dangerous, as flooded tents and homes expose displaced families to increased risks of disease and death. Approximately 1.5 million people, or 260,000 families, require emergency shelter, but only 19,000 tents have been delivered since the ceasefire. Restrictions at border crossings and bureaucratic requirements have slowed aid delivery, while some donated tents have been stolen or sold on the black market.

Humanitarian organizations urge Israel to allow more shelter supplies, emphasizing the urgent need for immediate support before long-term reconstruction efforts begin. International coordination, including the US-led Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), is expected to help improve the distribution of aid in line with the Trump peace plan. Despite ceasefire progress, conditions highlight the severe ongoing vulnerabilities faced by Gazans and the importance of swift humanitarian intervention alongside political solutions.

Ukraine Signs Rafale Jet Deal as Poland Blames Russia for Railway Sabotage

Ukraine has signed a letter of intent with France to obtain up to 100 French-made Rafale warplanes over the next ten years, alongside air defence systems, munitions and drones. The announcement was made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and French President Emmanuel Macron at Villacoublay military airport. Zelenskiy described the deal as establishing “one of the greatest air defences in the world”, while Macron emphasised it will support both short-term operational needs and the long-term regeneration of Ukraine’s military once a peace deal is achieved.

The agreement covers new material rather than transfers from French stocks. Financing is expected via EU programmes and potentially frozen Russian assets, pending EU approval. The package also includes next generation SAMP/T air- defence batteries and AASM Hammer air-to-surface munitions. While the political commitment is immediate, a formal purchase deal will follow and the operation of the advanced Rafales will require rigorous pilot training. France and Britain are also promoting a coalition of around 30 countries prepared to deploy troops or assets to Ukraine or its western borders once peace negotiations progress.

Meanwhile, Poland has accused Russian intelligence of orchestrating sabotage against rail lines used to transport aid to Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reported that two Ukrainian nationals working with Russian intelligence carried out explosions on tracks linking Warsaw to the Ukrainian border, describing it as an “unprecedented act of sabotage”. Officials said the blasts damaged tracks and power lines, forcing trains to stop but causing no casualties. Investigations classify the attacks as “acts of sabotage of a terrorist nature” targeting critical infrastructure. Army patrols have been dispatched to secure key routes, and authorities are examining surveillance evidence near the damaged lines.

These developments reflect the ongoing regional instability caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, highlighting both efforts to strengthen Ukrainian defence capabilities and the risks to critical infrastructure in neighbouring countries supporting Ukraine. The Rafale deal represents long-term strategic support, while the sabotage incidents illustrate the persistent security challenges facing states assisting Ukraine during the conflict.

Ukraine Targets Energy Reform as Poland Expands LNG Role in Regional Supply

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced wide-ranging reforms of the country’s state-owned energy sector following a $100 million embezzlement scandal at Energoatom, the state nuclear power company. The scandal provoked widespread criticism and ministerial resignations. Zelensky has ordered a full audit of state energy firms, including Energoatom, Ukrhydroenergo, Naftogaz and the Gas Transmission System Operator, along with the renewal of management, aiming to improve transparency and restore public trust. The president stressed close coordination with anti-corruption authorities to ensure accountability and integrity.

These reforms come at a critical moment as Ukraine struggles to maintain energy supplies during ongoing Russian attacks on power infrastructure. To mitigate winter energy shortages, Zelensky signed a deal with Greece to import US liquefied natural gas (LNG) from December 2025 to March 2026. The arrangement aims to secure domestic heating and electricity amid a war that has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian energy facilities. The LNG will be regasified in Greece and transported to Ukraine via the Trans‐Balkan Corridor through Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova, ensuring a reliable alternative to Russian gas and strengthening regional energy security.

The situation also highlights regional energy collaboration. Poland recently marked the 400th LNG delivery at its Świnoujście terminal, which now supplies around 40% of national gas demand and provides additional support to Ukraine, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Poland’s energy infrastructure and LNG deliveries exemplify how neighboring states are helping maintain stability and resilience in the face of regional conflict.

Together, Ukraine’s domestic reforms and Poland’s strengthened gas supply illustrate the intersection of governance, energy security and international cooperation. Ensuring transparency in energy management while securing reliable supply chains is vital for civilian protection, economic stability and military resilience during the ongoing conflict. These developments provide a case study in how internal reforms and cross-border energy support can jointly address the challenges posed by war, corruption and systemic risk in a crisis context.

Brazil Expands Indigenous Territories as COP30 Activists Demand Climate Action

Mass protests and Indigenous rights took centre stage at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where thousands marched on Saturday, 16 November, as the summit reached its halfway point. COP30 — which runs for two weeks from 11 to 22 November — is the latest UN climate conference aimed at turning long-standing promises into concrete action to limit global warming and support communities most affected by climate change.

Protesters faced intense heat as they demanded faster progress on phasing out fossil fuels, ending deforestation and protecting vulnerable communities. Indigenous groups, youth activists and civil society organisations joined forces in a march that sought to highlight the human impact of climate decisions often treated as technical debates inside negotiation rooms. Addressing the crowd, Brazil’s environment minister Marina Silva said the protest served to outline what must be achieved at the summit.

Indigenous activists also used the march to draw attention to rising violence in their communities. This urgency sharpened following the killing of Vicente Fernandes Vilhalva, a Guarani Kaiowá leader, who was shot during an attack on his village earlier in the week.

Amid this pressure, the Brazilian government announced the creation of 10 new Indigenous territories on Monday, 18 November. Once formalised by presidential decree, these areas — covering hundreds of thousands of hectares, including parts of the Amazon National Park — will receive legal protection for their environment, biodiversity and cultural heritage. Indigenous organisations welcomed the announcement but stressed that far more land still needs recognition.

Indigenous groups highlighted that their communities protect 82% of the world’s biodiversity and play a critical role in preventing deforestation, one of the main drivers of global warming. Studies presented at COP30 indicate that expanding Indigenous territories could prevent up to 20% of future deforestation in Brazil by 2030.

Inside the conference, negotiators handed over technical work to ministers as talks moved into their political phase. Key unresolved issues — including climate finance, emissions targets and the future of fossil fuels — remain strongly disputed. Meanwhile, the presence of protesters underscores the public pressure for decisions to reflect the voices of communities most affected by climate change. With COP30 due to conclude on 22 November, the outcomes will test the summit’s ability to combine technical negotiations with social and environmental accountability.

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