Global Crisis Watch 380 & 381 – The New Geopolitics of Critical Minerals

The global competition for critical minerals – essential for clean energy, defense and advanced technology – is rapidly becoming a major geopolitical hotspot. China, already dominant in rare earth production and refining, is tightening its control over supply chains and export routes, reshaping global power dynamics.

In October 2025, Beijing expanded export controls on several rare earth elements, including holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium. Effective from 8th November to 1st December, the regulations require licenses for companies exporting these materials or using Chinese refining technologies. While framed as a national security measure, the move reflects growing tensions with the United States. Rare earths are critical not only for electric vehicles and renewable energy but also for US military systems such as fighter jets and missile guidance equipment. The US imports about 70% of its rare earths from China, which refines over 90% of global output. Analysts see this as a strategic maneuver ahead of the planned Xi–Trump meeting in late October, with markets responding to the news with sharp gains in rare earth stocks.

China’s influence extends far beyond its borders. Its “Infrastructure for Resources” strategy has seen over $8 billion invested in African mining projects since 2023, spanning the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Namibia. These projects supply cobalt, lithium, nickel and rare earth minerals – crucial for the global energy transition. African nations benefit from roads, hospitals and other infrastructure, yet critics highlight long-term risks: environmental degradation, limited labor protections and weakened national sovereignty. Many observers describe this dynamic as a form of “new colonialism”, with China securing long-term control over essential minerals while African governments remain burdened by debt and limited regulatory capacity.

Some countries are seeking to counterbalance this influence through bans on raw exports and promotion of domestic refining. However, governance challenges and financial dependencies often limit their effectiveness. Africa’s resource wealth, if managed strategically, could strengthen negotiating positions and drive industrial development, but it remains deeply entangled in global power competition.

Ultimately, China’s dominance – from African mines to global refining networks – gives it extraordinary leverage over supply chains, pricing and geopolitical alignments. As critical minerals become central to both technological innovation and international strategy, Africa is emerging not just as a source of raw materials but as a critical stage in shaping the future of global power competition.

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