Global Crisis Watch 378 & 379

Israel and Hamas Move Toward Ceasefire Two Years After 7 October

Negotiations to finalize a Gaza ceasefire based on US President Donald Trump’s peace plan are underway in Egypt, with sources reporting progress between Israel and Hamas. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to join the talks alongside Israeli Minister Ron Dermer and Qatar’s prime minister.

The talks coincide with commemorations marking two years since Hamas’ 7th October 2023 attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages. The attack triggered a devastating Israeli campaign in Gaza that has since killed over 67,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and displaced 90% of the enclave’s population. Parts of Gaza are now experiencing famine, and an independent UN inquiry has accused Israel of genocide – allegations Israel denies, saying it is acting in self-defence against Hamas.

Israel’s war, which has extended to clashes with Iran and its allies in Lebanon and Syria, has left the country deeply divided. Despite significant military gains, including the killing of senior militants and Iranian officials, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces growing domestic criticism for failing to secure the release of remaining hostages. Only 48 captives remain in Gaza, with around 20 believed to be alive. Hamas insists they will only be freed in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal.

Commemorations in Israel have underscored the emotional toll of the conflict. Thousands gathered at memorials, including the Nova music festival site where nearly 400 people were killed. Families of victims expressed grief and anger, calling for both justice and peace.

In Gaza, civilians endure dire humanitarian conditions. Doctors describe treating widespread injuries and malnutrition amid continuous airstrikes and shortages of medicine and food. As indirect talks continue in Sharm el-Sheikh, hopes for an agreement remain fragile but vital.

Two years after the initial attack, the conflict has reshaped the region, leaving both Israelis and Palestinians trapped in cycles of violence and loss, while international mediators push for a ceasefire that could mark the first step toward ending one of the bloodiest chapters in recent Middle Eastern history.

Carney Meets Trump at White House to Revive Stalled Canada–US Trade Talks

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met US President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday, 7th October, in a bid to revive stalled trade talks and ease tensions over US tariffs on Canadian goods. The meeting – Carney’s second visit to Washington this year – was billed as a “working visit”, with both sides seeking to restore momentum toward a new trade and security arrangement, though no major breakthrough was expected.

Negotiations have stretched over the summer, surpassing the initial August deadline set by the two leaders. Canada remains the only G7 nation yet to finalize a trade deal with Trump’s administration this year. While 85% of Canadian exports to the US remain tariff-free under the USMCA (United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement) trade pact, key industries – including steel, aluminium and automobiles – have been hit with tariffs ranging from 25% to 50%.

Carney is under growing domestic pressure to deliver results. Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre warned that returning home without tariff relief would be seen as a failure for Canadian workers and businesses. Public trust in the US has dropped significantly, with recent polls showing six in ten Canadians believe their country can no longer fully trust Washington – sentiments heightened by Trump’s repeated remarks suggesting Canada should become “the 51st state”.

Trump described Carney as a “world-class leader” and a “tough negotiator”, while reaffirming his belief in the tariffs, saying simply, “I’m right”. Analysts suggest that while trade talks are not among Trump’s top priorities, Carney’s face-to-face diplomacy could help reopen dialogue.

Since taking office, Carney has taken a more conciliatory approach toward the US, lifting retaliatory tariffs and dropping a digital services tax. Supporters say this has kept channels open, while critics argue he has conceded too much.

US officials are also believed to be seeking Canadian commitments on defence cooperation and participation in Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” missile defence project. As talks continue, the meeting highlights both the fragility of the bilateral relationship and the economic stakes for Canada, which relies on the US for roughly three-quarters of its exports.

France in Turmoil as PM Lecornu Quits After Just 26 Days in Office

France has plunged into another political crisis after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned on Monday, 6th October, just 26 days after taking office – making him the shortest-serving premier in the history of the Fifth Republic. His departure marks the third resignation of a French prime minister in under a year, drawing attention to the deep paralysis within the country’s fractured political system.

Lecornu, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron on 9th September to replace François Bayrou, stepped down less than 24 hours after announcing his new cabinet, which drew fierce criticism from across the political spectrum. The inclusion of former finance minister Bruno Le Maire as defence minister became a particular flashpoint, prompting conservatives to withdraw their support. Le Maire later quit the cabinet in an attempt to defuse the crisis.

Hours after resigning, Lecornu accepted Macron’s request to spend the next two days exploring whether a “stability plan” could still be forged through negotiations with political parties. Macron, struggling with record-low approval ratings, must now decide whether to reappoint Lecornu, name yet another prime minister, or dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections – a move likely to favour Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.

France’s political instability stems from snap parliamentary elections in 2024 that left the National Assembly deeply divided, with no bloc commanding a majority. The result has made governance nearly impossible, with repeated collapses of successive governments unable to secure support for budgets or reforms.

Financial markets reacted nervously to Lecornu’s resignation, with the Paris CAC- 40 index falling by nearly 2% before recovering slightly. The country’s mounting debt – now at 114% of GDP – and a deficit of 5.8% have intensified pressure on the government to adopt austerity measures, a task that has proven politically toxic.

Speaking outside the Hôtel de Matignon, Lecornu blamed “partisan appetites” and a lack of humility among political factions for the impasse. “I was ready for compromise, but all parties wanted others to adopt their programmes in full”, he said. Unless a last-minute agreement emerges by Wednesday, Macron faces difficult decisions that could reshape France’s political landscape – or hasten his own decline.

Nile Floods Deepen Egypt–Ethiopia Rift Over Mega-Dam

Surging Nile waters have flooded parts of Egypt and Sudan, reigniting tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In Egypt’s northern Menoufia Governorate, residents were forced to use boats to navigate submerged streets after rising waters inundated homes and fields. Locals described this year’s flooding as far more severe than usual.

Seasonal Nile floods are common, typically powered by monsoon rains in the Ethiopian Highlands, but this year a late surge has moved downstream, intensifying humanitarian strain in both countries. In Sudan, the UN migration agency reported that floods displaced around 1,200 families in Bahri, Khartoum state, last week – further worsening the situation of the country’s 18-month civil war.

Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation blamed Ethiopia for what it called a “man-made, late flood”, accusing Addis Ababa of “reckless unilateral” dam operations. Cairo said that sharp, unannounced water releases following the dam’s 9th September inauguration – rising from roughly 485 million cubic metres on 10th September to 780 million by 27th September – strained Sudan’s Roseires Dam and sent excess water downstream.

Ethiopia firmly rejected the accusations, calling Egypt’s statement “malicious and baseless”. Its Water and Energy Ministry argued that regulated water releases from the GERD actually mitigated flood risks, insisting that, without the dam, the late-season rains would have caused “historic destruction” in both Sudan and Egypt. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reiterated that the $5 billion dam – designed to generate 5,150 megawatts and store 74 billion cubic metres of water – was built to drive development, not harm neighbouring nations.

Egypt remains deeply wary of the project, which it says violates century-old water treaties and threatens its share of Nile resources. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly acknowledged on 2ndOctober that authorities had anticipated higher water levels, warning that low-lying floodplain settlements in Menoufia and Beheira were at risk. Despite precautionary alerts, some residents say they had no viable place to go. “People were warned before the water rose”, said one fisherman, “but there’s nowhere else for anyone. When the water rises, everyone ends up staying on top of their houses”.

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