Global Crisis Watch 370 & 371

Corruption-Driven Protests Lead to Prime Minister’s Resignation in Nepal

Nepal is facing its most serious political unrest in decades, with Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigning after violent protests left at least 22 dead and hundreds injured. Largely led by young people identifying as “Gen Z”, the demonstrations began after a short-lived government ban on social media but have evolved into a broader movement against corruption, inequality and political dysfunction.

Protesters accuse the political elite of enriching themselves while ordinary citizens struggle with unemployment and economic hardship. Viral videos highlighting the lavish lifestyles of politicians’ families have intensified public anger. The movement is leaderless but highly mobilized, defying curfews and spreading across major cities.

The social media ban acted as a trigger because platforms such as Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram are central to daily life. They connect families across borders, support businesses and enable students to access online education. Blocking these services was widely seen as both a practical disruption and an attempt to silence anti-corruption voices, restricting freedom of speech.

This unrest follows earlier protests in March, when calls to restore the monarchy led to fatalities. The current wave is larger and explicitly focused on corruption and governance failures. Protesters are demanding accountability, reform and an end to what they see as a captured political system dominated by ruling parties.

Security forces have responded with live ammunition, rubber bullets and water cannons, causing significant casualties. Government buildings, party headquarters and parliament have been attacked or set on fire. The army has signaled readiness to intervene but has also invited dialogue, though no clear leadership exists within the movement.

With the prime minister gone and no immediate successor, Nepal faces a political vacuum. Analysts warn that unless authorities address corruption and inequality – the true drivers of unrest – the crisis could escalate further, affecting stability and the democratic progress achieved since the monarchy’s abolition in 2008. Daily life, businesses and education have already been disrupted, showing the tangible societal impact of the unrest.

Regional Tensions Rise as Israel Evacuates Gaza City and Hits Neighbouring States

Israel has ordered Gaza City’s roughly one million residents to evacuate ahead of a large-scale ground offensive, describing prior airstrikes as “only the beginning” of operations to capture Hamas’s last major stronghold. Hamas condemned the warnings as forced displacement, while the UN warned that intensifying military action in an area already experiencing famine could deepen humanitarian catastrophe. Many residents remain in place due to limited shelter, high costs and lack of safe relocation, with tens of thousands displaced to overcrowded southern areas. Humanitarian agencies report insufficient food, medical care and tents, warning Israel must allow aid through Gaza’s border crossings to prevent famine.

The conflict has recently escalated internationally. Israel carried out an airstrike in Qatar targeting Hamas leaders involved in ceasefire negotiations. The attack was condemned by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as a violation of sovereignty and international law. In Syria, Israeli strikes targeted areas near Homs, Palmyra and Latakia, part of ongoing operations against Iranian-backed groups and to prevent weapons smuggling. Meanwhile, in Tunisia, a drone reportedly attacked a vessel from the Global Sumud Flotilla, an international humanitarian initiative attempting to deliver aid to Gaza, marking the second such strike in two days. The flotilla, supported by delegates from 44 countries, including Greta Thunberg, confirmed no injuries but condemned the attacks.

These developments occur amid Israel’s broader campaign against Hamas and regional armed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi forces in Yemen, following Hamas’s October 2023 attack on southern Israel, which killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages. Since then, over 64,000 Palestinians have reportedly died from Israeli attacks, while global food security monitors indicate famine in parts of Gaza. Experts and rights organizations argue Israel’s military campaign raises serious international law concerns.

The Gaza conflict is spreading beyond the enclave, with displacement, famine risks and attacks on aid, underscoring the region’s instability and the danger to civilians.

French Political Instability Deepens with Bayrou’s Fall, Raising Economic and Geopolitical Risks

French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted by a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly on Monday, deepening political instability amid economic pressures and geopolitical tensions. The motion passed 364 – 194, well above the 280-vote threshold needed to topple the government. Bayrou had called the vote to push through a controversial €44 billion savings plan, which included scrapping two public holidays and freezing government spending. He is expected to submit his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron, who must now appoint a successor.

Bayrou’s departure marks the fifth French prime minister in less than two years, following predecessors Michel Barnier and others. Macron faces a narrow political landscape: opposition parties from the far left and far right have pledged to block any candidate from the centrist camp, limiting viable options for forming a stable government. Potential candidates include Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, though any appointment risks immediate opposition and further instability.

The political turmoil has rattled markets. French government bond yields have risen above those of Spain, Portugal and Greece, raising concerns over a possible sovereign debt downgrade. Bayrou had warned lawmakers that France’s €3.4 trillion debt liability threatens economic stability, but his efforts to rally support were unsuccessful due to a fragmented parliament following Macron’s snap election last year.

Public trust in the political system is eroding. Nationwide protests are planned by the far left under the banner “Bloquons tout” (“Let’s block everything”), with trade unions mobilizing on 18th September. Analysts warn that continued instability may strengthen the far-right National Rally, which could gain prominence ahead of the 2027 presidential election, further polarizing the political landscape.

The crisis comes amid significant international pressures, including ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, highlighting vulnerabilities in Europe at a critical geopolitical moment. France now faces a complex challenge: balancing fiscal reform, domestic stability and global credibility while navigating a highly divided parliament.

Ethiopia Inaugurates Giant Nile Dam, Ending Egypt’s Longstanding Water Dominance

Ethiopia has officially inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa’s largest hydroelectric plant, marking the end of Egypt’s historical dominance over the Nile’s waters under colonial-era treaties. Built on the Blue Nile at a cost of about $5 billion, the GERD’s 64-billion-cubic-metre reservoir is roughly the size of Greater London and has become a symbol of Ethiopian unity and pride. Its construction, launched in 2011, was largely self-financed through public contributions and government bonds, making it a rare collective national project in a country often divided by conflict.

At full capacity, the dam is expected to generate 5,100 MW of power – more than doubling Ethiopia’s current production – potentially providing electricity to tens of millions of citizens. Nearly half of Ethiopia’s 135 million people still lack access to power, and the government aims to expand coverage to 90% by 2030. The country also plans to export electricity to neighbors such as Kenya and Djibouti, with ambitions to reach Middle Eastern markets.

For Egypt, however, the GERD represents an existential threat. Dependent almost entirely on the Nile for water, Egypt fears major reductions to its annual share of 55.5 billion cubic metres. Experts warn this could worsen water scarcity, forcing Cairo to cut water-intensive agriculture and invest in large-scale treatment plants and wells. Egypt maintains that Ethiopia acted unilaterally, taking advantage of Egypt’s political turmoil during the 2011 revolution.

Despite confrontational exchanges and failed negotiations, war is unlikely. Analysts caution that an attack on the dam would devastate Sudan as well as Egypt. Still, tensions remain high, with concerns that the GERD could become a tool of political leverage in the region. Ethiopia, meanwhile, views the project as part of a broader assertion of power, linking it to ambitions for Red Sea access and greater regional influence.

Linkedin Youtube