You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 354, on Friday, July 11th at 17:00 BST / 12:00 EDT.
The highlighted topics will include:
Trump Resumes Ukraine Arms, Pushes Gaza Relocation Plan and Sparks Tariff Row with South Africa
Donald Trump has reversed a recent pause on US arms shipments to Ukraine, confirming that Washington will provide more “defensive weapons” to help Kyiv amid intensified Russian attacks. The announcement followed a week of deadly missile and drone strikes by Russia, including a major assault on the capital, Kyiv.
Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said he was “not happy” with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and acknowledged that Ukraine was “getting hit very hard”. The US had paused deliveries of critical systems like Patriot missiles and precision-guided shells last week, citing a Pentagon review prioritising “America’s interests”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the renewed support, emphasising the life-saving impact of the Patriot systems and warning that delays would weaken Ukraine’s defences. The Pentagon confirmed Trump’s directive to resume shipments, citing the need to ensure Ukraine can protect itself while diplomatic efforts continue.
Ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled. Trump admitted after a recent call with Putin that there had been “no progress” and accused the Russian president of lacking intent to end the war.
In parallel, Trump has said that ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are “going very well”, despite Palestinian officials reporting no meaningful progress. Discussions in Qatar have reportedly stalled, and the Israeli government is pushing controversial plans for the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza.
Israel’s defence minister has ordered the military to prepare for the mass transfer of Gaza’s population to a “humanitarian city” in Rafah. The UN has condemned such proposals as potential violations of international law. Meanwhile, Trump and Netanyahu floated a longer-term plan for regional resettlement of Palestinians, causing widespread disapproval.
In another development, Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from South Africa, sparking tension between Washington and Pretoria. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa criticised the move, calling it based on inaccurate trade data and warning of serious consequences for key export sectors.
Trump Criticises Brazil Over Bolsonaro ‘Witch Hunt’
US President Donald Trump has publicly criticized Brazil’s ongoing legal proceedings against ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, calling them a “witch hunt” and likening them to his own legal troubles. Bolsonaro is currently on trial for his alleged role in inciting a failed coup attempt in January 2023, shortly after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva assumed office. The charges stem from the violent storming of government buildings in Brasília by Bolsonaro supporters, though Bolsonaro denies any involvement and was in the US during the incident.
Trump, using his social media platform, claimed Bolsonaro was guilty only of “fighting for the people,” and called on Brazilian prosecutors to “leave Bolsonaro alone”. He praised Bolsonaro’s leadership and promised to monitor the situation closely. Bolsonaro responded with gratitude, framing the legal case as political persecution.
President Lula quickly rebuffed Trump’s remarks, stressing that Brazil is a sovereign nation with robust democratic institutions and an independent judiciary. He warned that “no one is above the law”, especially those who undermine democracy and the rule of law. Lula added that the defense of democracy in Brazil is solely the concern of Brazilians, and he dismissed Trump’s statements as unworthy of attention during the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro.
Further criticism came from Brazilian Minister Gleisi Hoffmann, who emphasized Brazil’s independence from US influence and suggested Trump should focus on his own legal challenges.
The tension between Trump and Lula adds a geopolitical layer to the trial, as Bolsonaro and Trump share a populist, nationalist style and both refused to concede electoral defeat. The controversy also coincided with the BRICS summit, where Lula and other leaders condemned US trade threats. Trump had warned of additional tariffs on countries aligning with what he called BRICS’ “anti-American” policies.
Bolsonaro, already barred from running for office until 2030 due to electoral misconduct, could face prison time if convicted. Meanwhile, his son Eduardo Bolsonaro has also come under investigation in Brazil for allegedly obstructing justice and promoting anti-democratic actions from abroad.
US-Colombia Ties Strained by Coup Claims and Migrant Dispute
Tensions between Colombia and the United States appear to be easing after weeks of diplomatic strain triggered by unproven claims of foreign interference. The row began when Colombian President Gustavo Petro accused US Senator Marco Rubio and other right-wing actors of involvement in a plot to destabilize his government. Though Petro offered no evidence, the accusation led to both nations recalling their top diplomats for consultations.
Colombia’s ambassador to the US, Daniel Garcia Pena, has since returned to Washington, stating clearly that neither Rubio nor the US government were involved in a coup attempt. President Petro also softened his stance in a letter to US President Donald Trump, acknowledging that some of his previous statements may have come off as “unnecessarily harsh”.
The diplomatic rift reflects a broader cooling of relations between the two allies. Colombia, once a close US partner under successive right-wing governments, has grown more distant under Petro’s left-wing administration. The situation escalated further after US authorities recalled their charge d’affaires, citing “baseless and reprehensible” accusations. In response, Colombia pulled its ambassador, citing the need to reassess the bilateral agenda, including cooperation on clean energy and drug policy.
Fueling tensions was a report alleging that Colombia’s former Foreign Minister Alvaro Leyva had unsuccessfully sought US support to remove Petro from power. Leyva is now under investigation. Other strains include Colombia’s refusal to extradite two rebel leaders wanted by the US, and January’s clash over the deportation of Colombian migrants from American territory.
A temporary diplomatic fix was reached through a backroom deal to avoid a trade war, but analysts warn the broader relationship may be at risk. Recent violence in Colombia – including deadly bombings and an attempted assassination of a right-wing presidential candidate – has fueled growing fears of domestic instability, just as the country’s international relationships come under strain.
Texas Flood Tragedy Sparks Alarm Over US Weather Agency Cuts
Catastrophic flash floods in Texas over the 4th July holiday have killed over 100 people and left many others missing, raising urgent questions about the government’s ability to warn the public during extreme weather events. The storms, which hit the state’s Hill Country with several months’ worth of rain in hours, are now the deadliest weather event since major staff cuts began at key US weather agencies during the Trump administration.
While the National Weather Service (NWS) did issue alerts, critics argue that years of underfunding and a loss of hundreds of meteorologists and specialists may have weakened the agency’s overall readiness. Many regional offices are operating with vacancy rates above 30%, according to union data. In Texas, the San Antonio NWS office had a 22% vacancy rate, though it deployed additional staff during the flooding.
A central figure in public safety coordination, warning meteorologist Paul Yura, had recently retired early under federal incentive offers, leaving a gap in community liaison efforts. Local volunteers noted the impact of his absence during the crisis.
Federal and state officials defend the NWS, pointing to the dozens of warnings issued by text, radio and digital channels. However, spotty mobile reception in rural areas meant many alerts never reached those most at risk. Critics also highlight that Kerr County lacked a siren system – previously shelved due to budget constraints – that could have provided another layer of warning.
Political controversy deepened as Democrats linked the tragedy to federal cuts, while Republicans accused them of exploiting a natural disaster for political gain. Meanwhile, NOAA faces proposed future budget cuts of $1.8 billion and a potential 17% reduction in staff.
As Texas begins recovery and rescue efforts, attention is shifting to long-term questions about preparedness in an era of intensifying climate risks. Experts warn that without reinvestment in forecasting tools and staffing, future disasters may grow even deadlier.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.