You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 335, on Friday, May 9th at 10:00 BST.
The highlighted topics will include:
As Moscow Faces Drone Attacks, Trump Ties Oil to Ukraine Peace and Demands Veterans Day Rebrand
US President Donald Trump said that falling oil prices have made Russian President Vladimir Putin more willing to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump noted that both Moscow and Kyiv now “want to settle,” emphasizing that lower oil revenues have weakened Russia’s position. He pointed to Putin’s recent offer of a three-day ceasefire to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany as a positive sign, while criticizing the conflict itself as “a war that should never have happened.” Trump also expressed doubt that Russia was responsible for the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, hinting that “a lot of people know who blew it up” without offering specifics.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Moscow for a second consecutive night, halting flights at several airports ahead of Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9th. Although Russian defenses intercepted most drones, debris fell on major highways, highlighting security concerns. President Xi Jinping of China and other world leaders are expected to attend the celebrations, but Ukraine urged foreign governments to stay away, warning that participation would amount to supporting Russian aggression.
Despite Russia’s declared ceasefire, Ukrainian officials reported continued shelling along the front lines, resulting in numerous civilian casualties. Skepticism remains high in Kyiv about Russia’s intentions, with Ukrainian forces continuing their drone operations both inside Russia and along disputed borders.
Separately, Trump proposed renaming Veterans Day (November 11) to “Victory Day for World War I” and called for May 8 to be celebrated as “Victory Day for World War II.” Historians quickly noted inaccuracies, pointing out that Veterans Day was created to honor peace after World War I, and that the official end of World War II occurred on September 2nd, 1945, following Japan’s surrender. Trump’s comments drew criticism for overlooking the broader purpose of honoring veterans from all US conflicts.
The developments reflect deep tensions in current diplomacy, conflicting historical narratives and Trump’s ongoing efforts to reshape both wartime remembrance and contemporary foreign policy debates.
Netanyahu Pushes Full Gaza Seizure as Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced an expanded offensive in Gaza, aiming to dismantle Hamas, seize more territory and relocate Gaza’s civilian population “for their protection.” Israeli leaders approved a plan to militarily control aid distribution, sidelining UN agencies and relying on private contractors — a move the UN condemned as a violation of humanitarian principles.
Reports indicate Israel is considering a full occupation of Gaza and the indefinite displacement of its 2.3 million residents. Israeli far-right ministers pushed to intensify the blockade by destroying food warehouses and cutting off electricity, though military leaders warned such actions could violate international law and
worsen Israel’s global standing. Critics inside Israel accuse Netanyahu of prioritizing his political survival over securing the release of remaining hostages and achieving long-term security goals.
Meanwhile, Hamas has rejected further ceasefire talks unless Israel lifts the blockade and ends what it calls a “starvation war.” Aid agencies warn of imminent mass starvation, with humanitarian groups refusing to support Israel’s new aid scheme, which they say manipulates humanitarian needs to force population movements.
Despite Israeli claims that enough food remains in Gaza, conditions continue to deteriorate. Recent bombings, including a deadly strike on a UN-run school sheltering displaced civilians, have killed dozens more, exacerbating civilian suffering.
The UN, France and international humanitarian leaders have condemned Israel’s expanded operation, warning it will cause massive civilian casualties, worsening famine, and obstruct the path toward a future Palestinian state. As Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe deepens, the international community faces urgent questions about how to respond to the rapidly escalating crisis.
After Historic First-Round Defeat, Merz Pledges Stronger German Leadership
Friedrich Merz was elected Germany’s new chancellor after a dramatic parliamentary vote exposed deep cracks within his coalition. Although Merz’s CDU-SPD (Christian Democratic Union – Social Democratic Party) alliance had secured a majority in February’s election, he failed to win on the first ballot—a historic first in post-war Germany. After hurried negotiations, Merz was confirmed with 325 votes, narrowly crossing the required threshold.
The initial debacle raised concerns about coalition stability at a time when Europe looks to Germany for leadership. Analysts warned that the failed first vote would embolden the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which came second in the election and has gained ground in polls. The AfD quickly called for new elections, claiming the coalition was unstable.
Merz, known for his abrasive style and fiscal conservatism, faces immense challenges: reviving Germany’s economy amid US tariff threats, responding to China’s growing influence and leading Europe’s security policy on Ukraine. He promised to prioritize restoring Germany’s competitiveness and strengthening defense spending under the “Zeitenwende” shift begun after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Internationally, leaders like France’s Emmanuel Macron and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky urged Germany to take a more active European role. Meanwhile, humanitarian concerns, including ongoing crises in Ukraine and Gaza, place additional pressure on Berlin to balance military support with humanitarian leadership.
Merz’s first moves include visits to France and Poland, signaling an effort to stabilize Germany’s role in Europe quickly. Talks with US President Trump are also planned, as Berlin braces for a period of global instability. Despite a turbulent start, Merz’s government is now tasked with steering Germany through serious economic, security and humanitarian challenges, while facing strong domestic opposition and rising far-right momentum.
Civil War Reaches Port Sudan, Endangering Millions in Need of Aid
Sudan’s civil war has taken a dangerous new turn, as Port Sudan — previously a safe haven — faced three consecutive days of drone strikes blamed on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The attacks targeted vital infrastructure, including Port Sudan’s airport, main army base, fuel depots and a hotel near army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s offices. The strikes caused major fires and a complete blackout after the city’s main power station was hit. Civilians, already amid widespread panic.
The RSF, which has increasingly used drones after losing most of Khartoum earlier this year, did not officially claim the Port Sudan attacks. However, it deteriorating situation, Sudan’s army-aligned government severed diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates, accusing it of supplying arms to the RSF—allegations the UAE denies.
Port Sudan had been crucial for humanitarian operations, as it housed the country’s only functioning international airport and served as a base for UN agencies and aid groups. The attacks now threaten the delivery of aid to nearly 25 million people facing acute hunger.
The war between Sudan’s army and RSF began in April 2023 over a dispute on transitioning to civilian rule. Since then, the conflict has displaced over 13 million people and divided the country: the army controls the north, east and center, while the RSF dominates Darfur and parts of the south.
International condemnation has followed the escalation, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UN warning of further humanitarian catastrophe. Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice dismissed Sudan’s case accusing the UAE of fueling genocide, citing lack of jurisdiction.
Port Sudan’s fall into violence signals a worsening, more destabilized phase of Sudan’s conflict, which carries with it the constant possibility of escalation into aregion-wide geo-political situation.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.