Global Crisis Watch 333

You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 333, on Friday, May 2nd at 10:00 BST.

The highlighted topics will include:

UK Joins US-Led Airstrikes Targeting Houthi Military Infrastructure in Yemen

The UK has launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen in coordination with the United States, marking the first British involvement in such strikes since Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency. RAF Typhoon jets, using precision-guided bombs, targeted a cluster of buildings south of Sanaa, believed to be used for manufacturing drones. The UK Ministry of Defence emphasized that the strikes
were carefully planned to minimize civilian risk, with all aircraft returning safely.

Since November 2023, the Iran-backed Houthis have launched numerous attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, claiming to act in solidarity with Palestinians amid the Israel-Gaza conflict. Their actions have caused significant disruption to global trade, with a 55% drop in Red Sea shipping reported, impacting the UK and global economies.

The US responded by intensifying airstrikes against the Houthis under “Operation Rough Rider,” carrying out over 800 strikes targeting drone facilities, missile sites and infrastructure. Despite these efforts, the Houthis have maintained operational capabilities and successfully shot down expensive American drones. Recent Houthi claims assert that US strikes resulted in civilian casualties, including the deaths of dozens of African migrants held in a detention center. These allegations are currently under investigation by the US military.

This is the first RAF strike against Houthis authorized under Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government. Defence Secretary John Healey stressed that the action was necessary to protect international shipping and British economic interests. Meanwhile, the Houthis warned the UK to “anticipate consequences” for its involvement and condemned the US, UK and Israel as aggressors.

European countries have been criticized by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for limited participation in the campaign, highlighting growing tensions within Western alliances on handling the threat.

Russia’s Victory Day Ceasefire Viewed with Skepticism as Peace Talks Stall

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a three-day ceasefire in Ukraine from May 8 to 10, aligning with Victory Day commemorations marking 80 years since the end of World War II. Moscow claims the pause is based on humanitarian considerations, but Ukrainian leaders dismissed it as political theater, accusing Russia of prioritizing parades over lives. President Volodymyr Zelensky instead called for an immediate, full ceasefire lasting at least 30 days to enable serious peace talks.

The United States, under President Donald Trump, also pressed for a permanent truce. While Trump welcomed the temporary pause, the National Security Council emphasized that he demands a complete end to hostilities and a formal peace agreement. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed possible next steps with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in a personal phone call, though negotiations remain strained.

Meanwhile, the United States and Ukraine finalized an agreement granting American access to Ukraine’s natural resources. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the deal as a clear signal to Moscow, while a key Trump ally announced broad US Senate support for a bill proposing “bone-crushing” new sanctions against Russia if Putin refuses to engage seriously in peace talks.

Past ceasefire attempts, such as the 30-hour Easter truce, collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations. Analysts, including the Institute for the Study of War, warn that Russia could use any pause to regroup for future offensives.

Despite Russia’s calls for direct negotiations without preconditions—including demands that Ukraine recognize Russian control over occupied territories—Kyiv refuses to engage on such terms. A 2022 decree bans talks with Putin following Russia’s illegal annexations.

Against this backdrop, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky met briefly at St. Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican while attending the funeral of Pope Francis. During their 15-minute conversation, Trump, expressing frustration over the stalled peace process, urged Putin to “stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal.” It was their first meeting since a contentious Oval Office encounter earlier that year.

Ukrainian officials continue to call for greater international pressure, warning that limited ceasefires merely serve Moscow’s military agenda.

UN Court Examines Israel’s Role in Gaza’s Growing Humanitarian Crisis

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has begun hearings to assess Israel’s legal obligations regarding the provision of humanitarian aid to Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, where a severe blockade has been in place since March 2024. The UN General Assembly requested this advisory opinion to clarify whether Israel’s actions, including suspending aid and severing ties with the UN’s Palestinian aid agency (UNRWA), violate international law. The ICJ hearings in The Hague will address whether Israel is legally bound to cooperate with UNRWA and allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, where food, medical supplies and fuel are critically scarce.

Israel imposed the blockade, claiming it is a necessary measure to pressure Hamas to release hostages. However, humanitarian organizations report worsening conditions in Gaza, with rising malnutrition, fuel shortages and overwhelmed hospitals. Palestinian representatives presented bleak testimonies accusing Israel of committing a “genocidal campaign” and blocking essential aid, exacerbating the suffering of the 2.1 million people living in Gaza. Israel, which did not participate in the hearings but submitted written submissions, argues that it has the right to control aid to prevent Hamas from exploiting it for military purposes. Israel further claims that UNRWA has been infiltrated by Hamas and, therefore, should not be involved in aid efforts.

The United States supported Israel’s position, asserting that Israel has legitimate security concerns and is not required to allow a specific international organization to operate in occupied territories. In contrast, Russia emphasized the critical role of UNRWA in providing relief to Palestinians and called for immediate action to address Gaza’s dire humanitarian needs.

The ICJ’s opinion, expected in the coming months, will have significant ramifications for Israel’s obligations under international law and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Spain Declares Emergency After Largest Blackout in Decades

Spain and Portugal have largely restored electricity after a massive blackout plunged much of the Iberian Peninsula into chaos. Starting Monday around 10:30 GMT, tens of millions were left without power, grounding planes, halting trains and suspending hospital operations. The government declared a national emergency,deploying thousands of police to maintain order, while Portugal and Spain convened emergency meetings.

The cause remains unclear. Spain’s grid operator, REE, ruled out a cyberattack but identified sudden losses of solar generation and a collapse in the connection to France as likely factors. Portugal’s REN initially blamed extreme temperature variations, but Spain’s meteorological agency disputed this, stating no unusual weather was recorded. Investigations are ongoing, and EU authorities have promised a full review.

The blackout highlighted vulnerabilities in highly renewable energy systems. Solar power, making up 59% of Spain’s generation at the time, plummeted by over 50% within just five minutes. Unlike traditional gas or nuclear plants, renewables provide little inertia to stabilize sudden supply drops.

By late Monday, power was gradually restored across Spain and Portugal. Madrid’s metro resumed most services by Tuesday morning, and 99% of Spain’s energy demand was back online. However, transport disruptions continued, and many residents faced prolonged internet outages.

Although large blackouts are rare, interconnected European grids have previously suffered similar events, such as Italy’s 2003 outage and Germany’s 2006 overload. Experts warn that, as renewable energy grows and climate risks intensify, grid stability will face greater challenges unless major investments in flexibility and backup systems are made.

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez urged patience, noting that no cause could yet be ruled out. “We’ve never experienced a system collapse like this,” he said, promising full transparency once investigations conclude.

Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.