Global Crisis Watch 331

You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 331, on Friday, April 25th at 10:00 BST.

The highlighted topics will include:

Peace Deal in Doubt: US Signals Deadline, Ukraine Stands Firm on Sovereignty

US Vice-President JD Vance warned that the United States may “walk away” from peace efforts unless Ukraine and Russia agree to a new proposal aimed at stopping the war. His comments follow downgraded talks in London involving the UK, France, Germany, Ukraine and the US, after key American officials unexpectedly withdrew. Focus now shifts to upcoming Moscow talks, where US envoy Steve Witkoff will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for the fourth time.

Vance emphasized that the US has made a “very explicit proposal” and it is now time for the parties to decide. The proposal appears to suggest freezing the war along current front lines, with both sides giving up some territorial claims. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his demand for a full, unconditional ceasefire and flatly rejected any recognition of Crimea as Russian territory.

Reports have circulated that Moscow may be willing to stop its offensive if allowed to keep Crimea, though Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed these as false. Ukraine continues to reject any concessions on what it calls “non- negotiable” issues, including territorial integrity. Zelenskyy also proposed a 30-day halt to missile and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure, pointing to the brief Easter truce as proof that Russia could stop attacks if it wanted to.

Despite talk of peace, Russia escalated its strikes this week, killing civilians in several cities including Marhanets, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. British officials confirmed there was no sustained lull in attacks, despite Putin’s claims of a holiday ceasefire.

The US and allies appear increasingly eager for a resolution, but fundamental disagreements over territory and trust continue to stall diplomacy. With hundreds of thousands killed or wounded and millions displaced, the war shows little sign of ending without major compromises—something neither Kyiv nor Moscow currently
appears willing to make.

The Death of Pope Francis: Is Christianity Still a Significant Global Influence?

The death of Pope Francis on 21st April, 2025, raises important questions about the ongoing influence of Christianity in a world increasingly marked by secularism and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Pope Francis’s papacy was defined by a distinctive approach to leadership—one that combined spiritual guidance with active engagement in global issues. Throughout his tenure, he consistently used his position to advocate for peace, social justice and the protection of marginalized communities. His visits to conflict zones such as South Sudan and his close interest in the events unfolding in Gaza, where he urged leaders to lay down their weapons, made clear his commitment to reconciliation and humanitarianism.

Pope Francis also placed great emphasis on issues like climate change, migration and poverty, using his platform to call for change in a way that resonated with both religious and secular audiences. His progressive views, particularly on topics like LGBTQ+ rights and the preservation of the natural environment, often clashed with more traditional factions within the Church, but they also expanded the Church’s reach to a broader, more diverse audience.

In contrast to the more institutionalized nature of the Vatican, Pope Francis led with humility and simplicity. He chose to live in a guesthouse instead of the papal apartments and worked tirelessly to maintain a direct connection with people around the world. Despite the rise of secularism and challenges to the Church’s authority, his leadership showed that religious influence—when rooted in compassion and authenticity—can still shape global discourse.

With his passing, the question remains: Can Christianity maintain its relevance in global affairs without figures like Pope Francis, who bridged the gap between faith, morality and global change? While secular forces grow stronger, the legacy of Pope Francis highlights that the spiritual values of Christianity can still inspire global action, especially in a world seeking compassion and ethical guidance.

Cautious Optimism as US and Iran Resume Nuclear Talks

The United States and Iran have resumed indirect nuclear negotiations, with two recent rounds of Oman-mediated discussions held in Muscat and Rome. These talks mark a cautious yet notable thaw in relations after years of stalemate following the US withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Technical-level discussions begin this week in Oman to clarify the details of sanctions relief in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear program.

The JCPOA, negotiated under President Obama, limited Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67% in exchange for sanctions relief. President Trump abandoned the deal in 2018, citing Israeli concerns and labeling it a “bad deal,” and reinstated harsh sanctions. In response, Iran increased enrichment levels to 60%, though still below the 90% needed for a nuclear weapon. Iran maintains that it does not seek nuclear weapons, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei having issued a religious decree forbidding their development.

Recent signs of progress include both sides sharing a room during the second round of talks and positive comments from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. However, Iran demands US guarantees on deal adherence, while the US wants Iran to roll back enrichment.

China remains a critical player, supporting Iran’s peaceful nuclear ambitions while opposing unilateral US sanctions. China, Iran’s main oil buyer, has built a sanction-resistant trade network and continues to import large volumes of Iranian crude. Recent US sanctions on Chinese refiners reflect ongoing tensions.

Whether a new agreement can be reached remains uncertain. Both sides appear open to compromise, but any deal will require navigating deep-rooted mistrust, regional politics and global interests.

EU Hits Apple and Meta with €700M in First Big Tech Crackdown Under New Law

The European Union has fined Apple and Meta a combined €700 million in the first enforcement of its Digital Markets Act (DMA), aimed at curbing the dominance of major tech firms. Apple received a €500 million penalty for restricting app developers from informing users about alternative purchasing options outside its App Store. This violates the DMA’s “steering” provision, which promotes consumer choice and competitive pricing. Meta was fined €200 million for implementing a “consent or pay” model on Facebook and Instagram, where users either had to allow personal data tracking or pay for ad-free access. The EU determined this did not offer genuine, free consent as required under the law.

Both companies strongly criticized the rulings. Apple claimed it was being unfairly targeted and forced to give away its proprietary technology, while Meta argued the decision effectively imposes a “multi-billion-dollar tariff” and creates a competitive disadvantage for American firms. Both plan to appeal.

Although the fines are modest compared to the companies’ annual revenues – Apple earned $391 billion and Meta $164 billion last year – they mark a significant moment in European digital regulation. The EU has warned that repeat breaches could lead to even steeper penalties, up to 20% of global turnover.

These decisions also come amid escalating tensions with the US Trump’s administration has accused the EU of unfairly targeting American businesses, recently threatening tariffs on European goods. The European Commission, however, insists the actions are strictly about enforcing competition and consumer protection laws, not trade retaliation.

The cases set a precedent for how global tech firms operate within Europe and could encourage other jurisdictions, like the UK, to take similar steps. Critics, including US-based think tanks, see the moves as part of a broader trend of “lawfare” against American tech.

Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.